Every runner scored on ten factors from your own results database, with a combined chance from form alone next to the chance the odds give it, and every meeting with today's rivals.
Form chance combines all ten factors, learned from a year of results. It was tested on races it had never seen: when it says 12%, those horses won about 12% of the time.
Odds chance is the price turned into a percentage, with the bookmaker margin taken out. The figure in brackets is the equal chance, (100 ÷ the number of runners) ÷ 2 − 1, for comparison.
The odds have been the better guide of the two. A big gap usually means the market knows something the form does not show, so treat a gap as a reason to look closer, not as value on its own.
For each rival in today's race, the column uses their most recent meeting in the last two years. Beaten lengths are turned into pounds (about 3 lb a length in sprints down to 1 lb at three miles), then the change in weights since is taken off.
Tested on 102,061 rematches: the horse that came out ahead finished ahead again 57% of the time, which the odds already allow for. Each 10 lb of advantage adds only about one point on top of the odds.
Rebuilt on MatServer every 30 minutes from 07:30, then every 15 minutes from noon until the last race. Last update .
Betfair is the best Betfair back price and Bookie the best price on offer from the bookmakers on Racing TV (bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power and others; hover for which one), both at each update. Once a race goes off it keeps its last prices before the off. Once the result is in, the price column shows the bookmakers' starting price (SP) and the odds chance is worked out from it. Horses Betfair has removed are struck through and left out of both chances.
The form model and the bar lengths are relearned each morning from the last year of results (), so five bars always means the same strength whichever factor it is on.
Results appear after the evening results scrape, about 30 minutes after the last race.
In races for 2-year-olds only, the horse names are greyed out. These horses have run little or not at all, so their form says less.